More thought has gone into next year’s Texas Republican primary contest for state attorney general. The more I think about it the more I am inclined to believe the incumbent AG, Ken Paxton, is in serious trouble.
Here’s how this might play out.
Two “establishment Republicans” have declared their intention to unseat Paxton, the indicted AG who is awaiting trial on securities fraud allegations. One is Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush; yes, he’s one of those Bushes … grandson and nephew of two former POTUSes. Another is former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman, a first-rate legal scholar, which is a rare thing to see in a candidate for attorney general, given the political nature of the nature.
These two GOP hopefuls are hoping to peel off support from Paxton by appealing to the less-nutty version of the Republican faithful. Indeed, George P. Bush might lack the legal pedigree one could hope for in an AG, but he’s got the name and the political chops. Guzman doesn’t boast the political heft of George P., but she surely has the legal credibility to burnish her candidacy.
Then on the far right we have a third GOP challenger, state Rep. Matt Krause of Fort Worth. I don’t know much about Krause, except that is a co-founder of the archconservative Texas Freedom Caucus that seeks to control the agenda in the Legislature. He’s a far-righty to be sure. Thus, he can peel off the nutty niche within the GOP.
All of this seems, to my way of thinking, to bode poorly for an AG who has faced criminal indictment, a probe by the FBI, complaints from former top legal assistants and questions from the Securities and Exchange Commission over the way he has handled investment advice … which led to the indictment in 2015 by a grand jury right here in good ol’ Collin County.
Three challengers are facing an attorney general who has the endorsement of Donald J. Trump, who is backing Paxton only because Paxton has sought to carry on The Big Lie that Trump actually won the 2020 presidential election, which of course he didn’t; he lost it bigly.
Oh, how I hope this pans out the right way.